Casey's General Stores (Casey's General Stores) Predictability Rank

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What is Casey's General Stores Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Casey's General Stores Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Casey's General Stores (Casey's General Stores) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Casey's General Stores Inc (NAS:CASY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CS2:Germany CS2:Germany

Address

One Se Convenience Boulevard, Ankeny, IA, USA, 50021

Website

https://www.caseys.com

Casey's General Stores Inc owns and operates over 2,500 convenience stores in multiple Midwestern states of the U.S. The stores provide self-service gasoline, grocery items, and processed foods such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches. Casey's operates its own distribution centres, delivering its in-store products and fuel supplies. The company owns of its real estate, including nearly all of the stores, distribution centres, and some of its subsidiaries' facilities. More than half of the company's stores are located in areas with populations of fewer than 5,000 people.

Executives

Mike Spanos	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Brennan Thomas P Jr	officer: SVP, Chief Merch. Officer	ONE SE CONVENIENCE BOULEVARD, ANKENY IA 50021
Sri Donthi	director	5008 AIRPORT ROAD NW, ROANOKE VA 24021
Katrina S Lindsey	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.	ONE SE CONVENIENCE BLVD., ANKENY IA 50021
Larree M Renda	director
Greg Trojan	director	ONE ICON, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Julia L Jackowski	officer: SVP, Corp Gen Counsel & HR	CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC., ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD., PO BOX 3001, ANKENY IA 50021
Diane C Bridgewater	director	8161 HEATHER BOW, JOHNSTON IA 50131
Brian Joseph Johnson	officer: SVP, Store Development	CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC., ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD., ANKENY IA 50021
Williams Ena Koschel	officer: Chief Operating Officer	15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Bramlage Stephen P Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ARAMARK, 1101 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19107
Adrian M Butler	officer: Chief Information Officer	111 NORTH CANAL STREET, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
William J Walljasper	officer: Senior VP and CFO	ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD, PO BOX 3001, ANKENY IA 50021
Chad Michael Frazell	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY, 5401 VIRGINIA WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Allison M. Wing	director	1909 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403